A completed backfill was not a complete record for 63.8% of wallets
Across 5,212 completed wallet backfills, 36.2% reconciled cleanly and 34.2% still had missing opening inventory. Read the quality audit.
Conviction Lens Research
What a headline prediction-market PnL leaves out
Original analysis of complete prediction-market wallet histories, built from resolved markets and public activity rather than screenshots or leaderboard claims.
$18.6M in positions was both Yes and No
Among 98 top Polymarket wallets, 11 held mergeable outcome pairs worth $18.6 million. Read the analysis.
What the top 10% of profitable traders do differently
Across 122 complete histories, the top group placed nearly eight times larger average bets and recorded 71 times more recent volume. Read the analysis.
How to check a Polymarket trader
Use a five-step checklist covering resolved PnL, entry price, drawdown, sample depth and profit concentration. Read the guide.
Why a 97% Polymarket win rate can still mean $49 in profit
Among 151 complete profitable histories, 123 won at least 90% of resolved markets, but their median reconstructed profit was $49.37. Read the analysis.
How concentrated are profitable trader returns?
Across 170 complete histories, the ten best markets generated 47.7% of gross winning PnL for the median wallet. Read the analysis.
A $100k public PnL is not a track record
Of 216 complete six-figure wallets, 51 had fallen since Conviction Lens first recorded them. Read the analysis.
Complete histories only
Every published cohort states its reconstruction criteria, definitions, snapshot time and limits.