11 of 98 wallets
More than one in ten measured wallets held at least one mergeable Yes and No pair.
Conviction Lens Research · 13 August 2026
$18.6 million in top-wallet positions was both Yes and No
We inspected the current public positions of 98 of the top 100 Polymarket wallets by lifetime headline PnL. Eleven held equal balances on both outcomes of at least one market, creating $18.6 million in mergeable full sets.
$18.6M in full sets
Each equal Yes and No pair can be converted back into one unit of collateral. It should not be read as two independent directional bets.
$8.59M without the largest wallet
The finding was not produced by a single account. Four wallets each held at least $1 million in mergeable pairs.
Why a raw position screen can mislead
A wallet can show a large gain on one outcome and an equal loss on the other while the combined full set remains neutral. Reading the legs separately exaggerates both directional exposure and the importance of the visible PnL.
Method
The snapshot was taken at 06:13 UTC on 13 August 2026. We requested the top 100 wallets from Polymarket's public all-time PnL leaderboard and successfully measured 98. We grouped non-redeemable current positions by market and counted only equal public balances across both binary outcomes. Wallet names, addresses and market identifiers are deliberately omitted.
Important limits
Mergeable inventory can be intentional market-making inventory and is not evidence of an error. The snapshot does not include resting orders, wallet cash or trader intent, and values can change after collection. Historical public activity is not a recommendation.