1. Confirm the position is still open
A large buy may already have been sold, redeemed or offset. Check the latest share balance, selected outcome and market status.
Conviction Lens Guide · 10 October 2026
How to track Polymarket whales without mistaking size for skill
A large trade can be useful evidence, but the amount is only the first line of the story. These six checks separate a live directional position from stale activity, paired inventory and an impressive looking account with a weak record.
2. Separate cost from current value
Money placed is the cost basis of shares still held. Current value is those shares at the latest price. The difference remains unrealised while the position is open.
3. Compare entry and current probability
The average entry price shows what probability the trader paid. Comparing it with the current price explains whether the open position moved in the trader's favour.
4. Remove paired inventory
Equal Yes and No shares form a complete set. Count the unmatched side as directional exposure instead of adding both balances together.
5. Check the trader record
Inspect resolved history, sample depth, profit factor, drawdown, concentration and data quality. Size alone does not prove skill.
6. Put the bet into its market
Compare the position with market volume, liquidity, time remaining and other tracked traders. One large account is not consensus.
A whale tracker observes positions, not intentions
Public data can show shares, prices and transactions. It cannot confirm private hedges outside the observed market, explain why a trade was made or guarantee that following it will reproduce the result.