1. Confirm the full history
Start with the exact wallet, the number of resolved markets and the observation period. A short or truncated sample cannot support the same conclusion as a long, reconciled record.
Conviction Lens Guide · 11 August 2026
How to check a Polymarket trader before trusting the headline
A wallet can show a large PnL or a near-perfect win rate and still hide a shallow, concentrated or volatile history. These five checks turn the headline into a record you can actually evaluate.
2. Separate resolved PnL from open value
Public PnL can move with open positions. Compare it with cash-flow PnL from resolved markets so realised results are not confused with positions that can still change.
3. Read the payoff behind win rate
Check average entry price and the size of an average win versus an average loss. Buying near-certain outcomes can create a very high win rate while producing little profit.
4. Measure drawdown
Maximum drawdown shows the largest fall from an earlier peak. It reveals the path and risk hidden by a positive endpoint.
5. Test profit concentration
Find how much of the result came from the wallet's best markets or one category. A record driven by a few outliers is different from gains spread across many independent markets.
What a checkable record should show
A useful trader profile connects public PnL, resolved-market PnL, profit factor, win rate, entry prices, drawdown, open positions and sample depth. No single score can replace the complete history.
Use the same checklist on every wallet
Changing the standard after seeing a large gain creates selection bias. Apply the same data-quality gates and risk checks to winners and losers, then compare like with like.
Important limit
A verified historical record can show what happened and how it happened. It cannot prove future skill or make a trader safe to copy. Conviction Lens provides independent analytics, not execution or financial advice.