36.2% reconciled
1,888 completed backfills passed the current cash-flow, coverage and accounting checks with no known truncation.
Conviction Lens Research · 13 August 2026
A completed wallet backfill was not a complete track record for 63.8% of wallets
We quality-checked 5,212 completed Polymarket wallet backfills. Only 1,888 reconciled cleanly. Another 1,782 still had missing opening inventory, showing why row counts alone cannot establish a reliable cost basis.
34.2% missed opening inventory
1,782 histories used inventory for which the observed sources did not contain enough earlier acquisition history.
7 of 271 six-figure wallets
Among wallets showing at least $100,000 in positive public PnL, only seven reconciled without a current quality caveat.
A completed collection job is not the same as a complete history
A backfill can exhaust every available page and still begin after inventory entered the wallet. Transfers, splits, merges, redemptions and NegRisk conversions can leave a sell or redemption without a complete observable cost basis.
Method
The production snapshot was taken at 10:33 UTC on 13 August 2026. It includes pipeline-selected wallets whose full-backfill job completed, then groups them by the resulting data-quality state. No wallet names, addresses, market identifiers or paid market lists are published.
Important limits
The cohort is not a random sample of every Polymarket wallet. Large and active wallets are intentionally overrepresented. A non-reconciled state is a data limitation, not evidence of misconduct, bad performance or an error by Polymarket.