51 of 216
Nearly one in four high-PnL wallets was down since its first captured public PnL reading. The median decline among those 51 wallets was $25,508.
Conviction Lens Research · 9 August 2026
A $100k public PnL is not a track record
We reconstructed 216 complete prediction-market wallets showing at least $100,000 in public PnL. Fifty-one of them, 23.6%, had a lower public PnL than when Conviction Lens first recorded them.
$33,684 drawdown
The median maximum drawdown was $33,684. At the 75th percentile it reached $147,749.
27 weak resolved records
Twelve and a half percent had a resolved profit factor no higher than 1 despite a six-figure public PnL.
What the headline number leaves out
Public PnL is a useful snapshot, but it can include open positions valued today and it does not show the path between peaks. A complete record also needs resolved wins and losses, sample depth, drawdown and what changed after observation began.
Method
The snapshot was taken at 14:27 UTC on 9 August 2026. We included wallets with at least $100,000 in public PnL, a complete profile and full backfill, complete accounting confidence and no truncated data. The median wallet had 246 resolved markets.
Important limits
Observation windows differ. Since tracked is the change between the first and latest captured public PnL readings, not realized profit from trades opened after tracking began. Maximum drawdown is the largest decline from an earlier reconstructed PnL peak, not total capital lost. Historical analysis is not a recommendation.